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Deal? Or No Deal?

Written By: Gary on April 3, 2006 4 Comments

She had 1 penny, $400,000 and $750,000 on the board so they offered her $375,000. A very generous offer as the show goes. If she doesn’t take the money she has to open one more. She said she was a gambler so this should have been easy and Howie pretty much spelled it out for her that there were 3 options if she picked the case:

  • She could pick the penny and the offer would go up (probably to about $575,000, IMHO) and you could play between $400k and $750k or go.
  • She picks the $400,000 case and the offer stays at about $375,000 (the logical spot is the same amount, but I think Howie inferred it’d go up) and you should quit.
  • This is the worse option, she picks the $750,000 and the offer drops to $200,000 (Howie did the math for her on this one and I’ve never seen him be specific before) and you’d have to quit then.

    It’s all a win at that point, so to me you keep on playing. At that point even making a bad choice you still have $200,000!!! And the good choices (66%) are better!


    She would have been my hero if she kept going but even so she’s still a winner (and she really doesn’t care what I think anyways). She took the $375,000 and ran. I would have been tempted too, but the odds were pretty good to keep going.

    God they dragged it out, she had already started playing last week and they kept her going for another 75 minutes this week (lots of ads). Although they did show some behind the scenes stuff…

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    4 Responses to “Deal? Or No Deal?”

    1. BrendaS says on: 3 April 2006 at 11:16 pm

      thanks for posting this. We had only TIVO’d the first hour, which left us with 3 cases left to open when howie went to commercial.

      I’m glad she took the money..
      did they show what was in her case???

    2. Gary LaPointe says on: 3 April 2006 at 11:50 pm

      I hadn’t actually watched that part when I did the post.

      She had the $400k in her case (so it’s only $25,000 more). But since her next guess would have been the one to knock off the $750k she would have had to choose between keeping $200,000 or taking a chance at 1 cent or $400,000. She did make the best choice over all, but statistically I think she should have made one more guess…

      (Although that means I would have only gone home with $200,000)

    3. Melushka says on: 6 April 2006 at 12:36 pm

      I love the show. It is a show that already exist in Holland. The way it is presented you can hardly get of the chair!! Great Show!!

    4. Dan W says on: 7 April 2006 at 4:40 pm

      Thanks for posting the resutls on your blog! My wife and two daughters, 9 and 7, love watching this show. We had to tape this episode and our VCR ran out of time during the last commercial break and we didn’t even know it would be back to back episodes. Your blog helped us find out the winner. Thanks!
      P.S. I would have taken the deal at $199,000, too!

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